Fantasy cricket has transformed from a casual pastime into a competitive strategy game where every decision counts. With competition fiercer than ever and only increasing, you need a sustainable and consistent edge to even stand a chance of winning. Using analytics as a key part of your strategy can give you the advantage you require.
But not all metrics that need to be analysed will have the same impact on your team’s score. Below are three key metrics that stand out from the rest:
- Expected Points
- Best XI%
- Top Scorer%
There are two reasons why they are potentially more impactful than the other standard metrics that most fantasy cricket players might look at.
- These metrics have a forward looking approach. This means they are an indicator of a player’s expected performance, not merely a record of their past performance.
- 11Wizards, the fantasy cricket lineup builder app that developed these metrics especially for fantasy cricket, uses advanced predictive analytics based on key data points to calculate them.
In this guide, we’ll explore these metrics in detail, explain how they work, and show you how to use them effectively for fantasy cricket team selection.
Why Metrics Matter in Fantasy Cricket
Imagine this scenario: you’re deciding between two players for your fantasy cricket team—one is a player with a big name and reputation but whose recent performances have been inconsistent, and another with a lower profile but far better recent performances than the big name player.
Without reliable metrics to guide your decision, you might lean toward the bigger name. This creates a bias in your selection. However, analysing the right metrics would indicate that – in this situation – the less popular player is more likely to deliver given their recent form and the given match conditions. This shift from instinct to data-driven decisions can make all the difference. You are giving yourself a statistically better chance of success this way.
High-Impact Metrics for Fantasy Cricket Players
1. Expected Points
Expected Points is a predictive metric that estimates how many points a player is likely to score in an upcoming match. This calculation considers various factors, including:
- Recent form
- Opposition quality
- Match conditions (e.g., pitch type, weather, and venue)
- Player ability
- Team totals
For instance, if a player like Suryakumar Yadav has been in stellar form and is facing a weaker bowling lineup on a batting-friendly pitch, his Expected Points will reflect these favourable conditions.
2. Best XI%
Best XI% measures the likelihood of a player being included in the Best possible fantasy lineup for a particular match. This percentage reflects the player’s ability to deliver consistent performances that make them indispensable to a winning fantasy team.
For example, Jasprit Bumrah might have a high Best XI% because of his proven track record of taking wickets during crucial moments and racking up fantasy points. This metric helps you identify reliable performers who are likely to contribute regardless of match conditions.
3. Top Scorer%
Top Scorer% indicates the probability of a player being the highest fantasy points scorer in a match. This metric is invaluable for identifying potential game-changers and captain/vice-captain picks who can single-handedly boost your team’s total.
Take, for instance, Andre Russell in a T20 match. His ability to excel in both batting and bowling gives him a higher chance of being the top scorer. While such players might come with some risk, their potential rewards make them ideal candidates for captaincy.
Where to Find These Metrics?
These metrics are only available on the 11Wizards App, inside the player research tool.
The below screenshot shows these metrics calculated for Mohammad Rizwan, for Pakistan’s upcoming match against Zimbabwe.
Integrating Metrics into Your Fantasy Cricket Strategy
1. Selecting Captains and Vice-Captains
Expected Points and Top Scorer% are key metrics for captaincy decisions. A player with a high Expected Points value offers reliability, while one with a strong Top Scorer% can deliver explosive results making them an excellent captaincy pick.
Example: In a high-scoring T20 match, a wicketkeeper-batter like Jos Buttler might have both a high Expected Points score and Top Scorer%. Making him your captain could significantly amplify your team’s total.
2. Balancing Risk and Consistency
While Top Scorer% identifies high-reward players, Best XI% helps you build a stable core. Players that have a high Best XI% indicate that they are consistent fantasy cricket performers and can be reliable selections for your fantasy cricket team.
Example: If you’re creating a team for an ODI match, you might select a consistent performer like Virat Kohli who consistently features in the Best Fantasy XI.
3. Differentiating Your Lineup
In large contests, many players select similar teams. Using these metrics allows you to create lineups that rely on data rather than player popularity. By identifying low-ownership players that are predicted to perform better than expected, you can gain an advantage.
Example: If a bowler like Varun Chakravarthy is predicted to perform well on a turning track, selecting him could differentiate your team from others relying on more popular choices.
Example Fantasy Dream Team Selection Strategy for India vs Australia
Imagine you’re building a fantasy team for an India vs. Australia T20 match. Here’s how you could use the metrics:
Expected Points: Rohit Sharma and Mitchell Starc have high Expected Points based on recent form and match conditions and their ability to rack up runs/wickets quickly in a short space of time.
Best XI%: Virat Kohli and Steve Smith offer reliability with strong Best XI% values.
Top Scorer%: Hardik Pandya is a great choice for captaincy with a high Top Scorer%.
Remember, don’t confuse Top Scorer% with the top runs scorer. This metric indicates the expected chance of a player being the top fantasy points scorer in the match. All rounders usually have a great chance of being the top scorers, since they can contribute meaningfully with both bat and ball.
By integrating these insights, you create a team with a mix of safe and high-reward picks.
Conclusion
High-impact metrics like Expected Points, Best XI%, and Top Scorer% are revolutionising how fantasy cricket teams are built. These data-driven insights allow you to move beyond guesswork and make informed decisions that maximise your chances of success. Tools like the 11Wizards App make these metrics accessible, empowering players to create stronger, more competitive teams.